Written by: Kaitlyn Nichols, Ian Campbell, and Maren Hale
June 12, 2024, was the culmination of a year of hard work for the most recent cohort of students in the Masters of Advanced Studies (MAS) in Climate Science and Policy (CSP) program. Students gathered at Scripps Seaside Forum with their colleagues, friends, and families to present on their capstone research projects. As part of the program, MAS CSP students are required to complete an intensive multi-disciplinary capstone project aimed at investigating a real-world climate question. This year, two of those students, Ian Campbell and Kaitlyn Nichols, elected to work alongside Heat Hub scientists, conducting scientific research on topics related to extreme heat and climate in Southern California. In this blog, Kaitlyn and Ian share some insight into their capstone research as well as their experience working with the Heat Hub over the past several months.
Ian Campbell
This capstone research was the culmination of my Master’s of Advanced Studies in Climate Science and Policy.
Recognizing the growing threat of wildfires in California, I focused on understanding the reasons behind their changing frequency and intensity. While much of the discourse has centered on how fire suppression and subsequent fuel loading in Northern California forests contributes to larger, more severe fires, my aim was to explore the influence of climate on fire frequency in Southern California. I sought to provide research that could aid in predicting the severity of wildfire seasons months before they begin. My hypothesis suggested that preceding Atmospheric River related precipitation might play a pivotal role. Drawing on my botanical expertise and passion, I aimed to investigate this connection on a more detailed level. Previous studies on the impact of Atmospheric Rivers on fuel loading have been broad; I chose to focus specifically on Level IV ecoregions and their distinct plant compositions, including areas dominated by grasses, sage scrub, chaparral, and conifer forests.
Ian Campbell and Kristen Guirguis at the CW3E Annual Meeting.
The findings revealed that winter precipitation increased growing season productivity across all ecoregions in Southern California, which was expected. However, a notable and surprising result was the stronger correlation between winter precipitation and fall vegetation greenness in chaparral-dominated ecoregions. This indicates that wet winters may result in less severe wildfire seasons in chaparral areas, as the plants remain healthier, which may outweigh the risk from the increase in biomass. In contrast, grassland and sage scrub-dominated ecoregions showed little correlation between winter precipitation and fall greenness, suggesting that wet winters lead to greater fuel accumulation and heightened wildfire risk. The results were more nuanced in conifer forests, where multiple years of fuel accumulation likely play a more significant role in determining wildfire severity.
Throughout this project, I was guided by Kristen Guirguis, Sasha Gershunov, and Christine Albano, whose insights into the link between ARs and wildfires were invaluable. In particular, Kristen helped me learn MATLAB, which is a tool I hope to use in my research going forward. I am thankful to CW3E for allowing me to present my research in poster form at their annual meeting as well as at IARC. My goal is to continue to do research on Southern California plant communities and their interactions with our changing climate, as I believe understanding these dynamics is critical for proper land management.
Ian presents at the MAS CSP Capstone Symposium on June 12, 2024.
Kaitlyn Nichols
During my time as a Master student in the Climate Science and Policy program at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, I had the incredible opportunity to work on a capstone project that combined my passion for climate change and marine ecosystems. Under the guidance of Dr. Mark Merrifield, I delved into the fascinating world of marine heat waves (MHWs) and their impacts on coastal organisms in the Southern California Bight.
My research journey began with an intensive literature review, which revealed a significant gap in scientific understanding of how MHWs affect coastal organisms in this region. This discovery led me to focus on a unique and often overlooked population of California sea lions in La Jolla Cove, San Diego. With approximately 300 individuals, this colony plays a crucial role in maintaining the biodiversity of the local kelp forest ecosystem.
Sea lions at La Jolla Cove. Photo by Kaitlyn Nichols.
The project aimed to define MHWs in the Southern California Bight and explore their implications for sea lion population trends. Using a 107-year record of sea surface temperature data from Scripps Pier, we analyzed how the frequency, intensity, and duration of MHWs have changed over time. We employed both fixed and shifting baseline approaches to account for long-term warming trends, providing a comprehensive view of MHW evolution in the region. This view allowed us to see that MHWs have been happening throughout the 107 year data set, but they are becoming increasingly hotter overtime.
One of the most intriguing aspects of the research was examining how MHWs affect upwelling dynamics and nutrient supply, which in turn impact prey availability for sea lions. Previous studies on other colonies have shown significant events of mass pup strandings during MHWs due to food scarcity, highlighting the urgent need for more research on the La Jolla Cove population.The Seal Society of San Diego is currently the primary organization collecting population data on the La Jolla sea lion colony. Using professional drone operators and trained docent counters, they have gathered approximately two years of data on this often overlooked population. The Seal Society actively advocates for the protection of these sea lions and emphasizes the urgent need for more comprehensive, long-term research and population counts.
Looking ahead, I’m excited to continue exploring this field. My future research aspirations include conducting detailed population studies of the La Jolla Cove sea lions to gain more knowledge about this colony and advocate for their protection. Additionally, I hope to further investigate MHWs in Southern California, focusing on projections of their frequency and intensity in the face of climate change.
This capstone project has not only deepened my understanding of climate science and marine ecology but also reinforced my commitment to protecting our oceans and their inhabitants. As we face increasing environmental challenges, research like this becomes ever more crucial in informing policy decisions and conservation efforts.
Kaitlyn presents her capstone research at the MAS CSP Symposium on June 12th, 2024.
Header image caption: Portraits of Kaitlyn Nichols (left) and Ian Campbell (right).